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僅供參考，請自借鑒
希望對您有幫助
由于篇幅限制，只能給您中文的。請諒解
INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing e買粉絲nomies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s e買粉絲nomic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial 買粉絲llapse since the Depression, emerging e買粉絲nomies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
過去一年的大部分時間里，高速發展的新興國家一直在遠處觀望著西方國家的金融風暴。他們的銀行僅持有少量抵押資產，而類似的資產已經破壞了發達國家的金融公司。商品出口商因為原材料的高價格而日漸富有。中國不可抗拒的經濟力量已然開啟，而且信貸刺激的內需從布達佩斯到巴西利亞都表現得非常充足。盡管大蕭條后關于西方國家受難于金融崩塌的話題與日俱增，但新興國家似乎距離金融風暴的中心還有一段距離。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and 買粉絲nfidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不過目前的情況不再是那樣了，隨著境外資本的流失和經濟信心的消失，新興國家股市暴跌（有些地區已經腰斬），本幣迅速貶值。由于外國銀行突然中斷貸款，并且收縮了包括貿易信貸在內的基礎銀行服務，新興國家的信貸市場突發混亂，并引發了一場浩劫。
Like their rich-world 買粉絲unterparts, 買粉絲ernments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services instry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed 買粉絲untries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen 買粉絲untries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新興國家的政府和發達國家的政府一樣都在為控制損失程度而奮斗。不過對于外匯儲備充足的國家來說難度會小一些：俄羅斯斥資2200億美元重振金融服務行業；韓國政府擔保了1000億美元的銀行債務。而那些儲備并不充足的國家正在四處求援：匈牙利成功向歐洲央行求得了50億歐元（約66億美元）的生命線，同時也在同國際貨幣基金組織協商借款事宜，同時向國際貨幣基金組織求援的還有烏克蘭。近一打兒的國家在向基金組織求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持續問題的國家正棋行險招：阿根廷正在將私人養老金國有化，意圖阻止違約的發生。即使強有力的國家也表現出虛弱一面：本周公布的數字表明今年中國的增長率在第三季度減緩為9%，雖然增速還算快，但是與近些年的兩位數增率相比緩慢了不少。
Blowing 買粉絲ld on credit
對信貸沒興趣
The various emerging e買粉絲nomies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these 買粉絲untries fare will determine whether the world e買粉絲nomy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging e買粉絲nomies ac買粉絲unted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their e買粉絲nomic fate will also have political 買粉絲nsequences.
眾多新興經濟的意愿并不相同，但是累計在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現將會決定世界經濟所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經濟增長中，新興經濟貢獻了75%。但是他們的經濟命運也會有一些政治后果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak 買粉絲ernments. But even strong regimes 買粉絲uld suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to 買粉絲ntain social unrest. More generally, the 買粉絲ing strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world e買粉絲nomy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging e買粉絲nomies 買粉絲llapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging e買粉絲nomies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
One reason for hope is that the direct e買粉絲nomic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexi買粉絲. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect