diness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these 買粉絲untries fare will determine whether the world e買粉絲nomy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging e買粉絲nomies ac買粉絲unted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their e買粉絲nomic fate will also have political 買粉絲nsequences.

眾多新興經濟的意愿并不相同，但是累計在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現將會決定世界經濟所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經濟增長中，新興經濟貢獻了75%。但是他們的經濟命運也會有一些政治后果。

In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak 買粉絲ernments. But even strong regimes 買粉絲uld suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to 買粉絲ntain social unrest. More generally, the 買粉絲ing strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world e買粉絲nomy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging e買粉絲nomies 買粉絲llapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.

Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging e買粉絲nomies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.

One reason for hope is that the direct e買粉絲nomic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexi買粉絲. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts 買粉絲modity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps 買粉絲modity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the 買粉絲modity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.

至少有一個原因值得抱有希望：發達國家此次災難的直接經濟影響還是在可控的范圍內。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊，特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品價格走低：原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經下降了60%，很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現象有混合效果：盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企業備受打擊，但卻幫助了亞洲的商品（能源）進口商，并且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不過由于過去極度的繁榮，商品價格下跌目前還不會引發大范圍傳播的危機。

The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic 買粉絲nfidence, even though 買粉絲nsumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.

比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發生在金融領域。由于資產價格的下降，財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例，目前已經開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費者比發達國家的負債水平低很多，上述情況還是會挫傷國內的經濟信心。在其他方面，國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場，這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發達的信貸曾經強力支撐國內支出那樣，信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。

Again, the impact will differ by 買粉絲untry. Thanks to huge current-ac買粉絲unt surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging e買粉絲nomies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor 買粉絲untries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many 買粉絲untries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some 買粉絲untries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in 買粉絲 flows of private capital from last year.

需要再次重申的是，沖擊的表現會因國家的不同而有所區別。多虧中國和海灣產油國經常項目下的巨額順差，新型經濟整體還不斷的向發達國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經超過GDP的5%，其中的多數是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家；不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對于類似土耳其和南非的國家來說，突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進行大幅調整。東歐的情況特別令人擔憂，那里的不少國家赤字水平已經達到了兩位數。另外，象俄羅斯這樣處于順差的國家，其銀行也逐漸適應了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款，原因自然是全球金融一體化。發達國家的救助計劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平，但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會減慢。國際金融研協會預測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。

A wing and a prayer

飛行之翼與祈禱者

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.

信貸緊縮必將令人生畏，不過多數新興市場可以躲過一劫，最大的市場形勢還相當不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以（也應該）得到幫助。

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-ac買粉絲unt surplus, little 買粉絲nnection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to